A fair phasing out of fossil fuels for Africa

The transition to cleaner and safer energy is happening worldwide. To have a chance to limit global warming, the world needs to stop relying on fossil fuels. Shifting away from oil and gas needs to happen in a just and equitable way, with countries that bear the historical responsibility of the climate crisis acting first and fastest. 

What does this mean for us, in Africa? Despite many African countries being signatories to the Paris climate agreement, and the development of national energy transition strategies and plans, there is little progress being made in the transition to clean energy in sub-Saharan Africa. It is true that our countries are responsible for a very small amount of the world’s global CO2 emissions. Does this mean that we should keep on extracting oil and gas as we do now? If we do so, will it be fair for our populations? 

Escaping the oil and gas trap, before it’s too late

Oil and gas extraction is having massive impacts over our lands and populations, as illustrated by the disastrous pollution and poverty levels in the Niger Delta. The huge East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), linking Uganda to Tanzania, is threatening the livelihood of thousands of local populations, while the key contracts settling the deals are locked in opacity. 

The sad reality is that in many cases, oil and gas have not helped to take us out of poverty. Countries like mine, Nigeria, depend heavily on the fossil fuels sector: according to Carbon Tracker, oil and gas provide 80% of government revenue. Yet the World Bank estimates that almost 40% of Nigerians live below the poverty line, making it the world’s second-largest population living in poverty. And energy is scarce and expensive. There are generations of Nigerians who have been born and have died without seeing how an electric bulb lights a room. 

And this won’t get better. Oil and gas revenues projections in the coming decades show that we have a lot to lose. As the world decarbonises, many governments have pledged to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that if these countries stick to their promises, global consumption of oil would fall from present levels by 45% by 2050. If governments go further and achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, oil consumption would fall by 78% by 2050. For societies that are dependent on oil and gas, this could deal a fatal blow. 

Oil and gas is also trapping our countries into debt. Building and operating extractive infrastructures requires huge levels of investments that big, foreign funders provide as loans. African countries end up having to pay their debt back for decades, instead of investing in their social, health, and education systems. The International Monetary Fund reports that giant discoveries of oil and gas tend to lead to permanently higher government debt, and often episodes of debt distress. There are countries in Africa which are just starting their extractive journey, investing massive amounts of money – and generating more dept – to start producing fossil fuels. This is the case of Senegal, which discovered large reserves of offshore oil and gas a few years ago, and started extracting it this summer. Is it fair to Senegal citizens to financially dive into such an uncertain horizon?

We need a B plan. But a fair one.

We certainly need to have a B plan. We can’t just keep on digging until we run out of fossil fuels, trapping ourselves into economic uncertainty and debt, along with pollution, corruption, and all the negative aspects of fossil fuels extraction. 

But we have a bit of time in front of us. Don’t get me wrong: the planet can’t wait. Frontline communities, including in Africa, are hit harder every year. Big polluting Western countries and companies have to act first, and quickly. Yet a fair fossil fuels phase out means that the timeline looks different for each country. According to the Civil Society Equity Review, the ultimate deadline by which countries need to phase fossil fuels out depends on how dependent on oil and gas their economies are, and how easy or not it will be to switch to other economic alternatives. 

This gives us the opportunity to tap into our continent’s tremendous potential for renewable energy.  We have sun, wind, and water power. It’s a matter of choice for our governments, which need to think about the long term and invest in the right spaces. At the regional level, African countries could collaborate to build more resilient and sustainable energy systems to help bring clean electricity to the 600 million Africans who still don’t have access to it.  

But it is also a matter of choice for foreign funders, including richer countries bearing the historical responsibility for the climate crisis, which need to provide sufficient finance and support to manage the shift. The recent disastrous COP29 agreement to provide $300 billion in climate finance per year is well below what we need. There is still a lot of work to do to make our voices heard in multistakeholder fora, saturated with oil and gas interests. 

You want to read more?

The PWYP network has stories to tell. Challenging, but very inspiring work is happening in several African countries to ensure that the transition from the oil and gas era is just and leaves no one behind. Have a look at these cases from Tanzania, Ghana and Nigeria showing that together, we can do a lot, even in the most challenging contexts, for a fair and equitable phasing out of fossil fuels.